The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
The current spurt in the stock market is on account of strong fundamentals and robust corporate earnings and retail investors can look for buying opportunities to accumulate quality stocks, experts said.
'In phases when smaller stocks do well, an equal-weight index performs better than its market cap-weighted peer.'
Defence stocks have been on a tear, with the Nifty India Defence index hitting all-time highs. Over the past week, the index jumped around 7 per cent, far outpacing the flat performance of the Nifty 50. Over the past month, its 12 per cent gain has trebled the benchmark's return.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have infused a record Rs 4.6 trillion into Indian equities over the course of Samvat 2080, marking the highest net annual investment in any Samvat to date. This robust domestic inflow has effectively counterbalanced the comparatively subdued investments from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who contributed a net Rs 90,956 crore within the same timeframe. Against this backdrop, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices are on track to achieve their best performance in three Samvat years, despite recent market corrections.
Investors became richer by nearly Rs 8 lakh crore on Wednesday as benchmark BSE Sensex surged by 740 points amid value buying in utilities and power shares and a strong trend in global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged by 740.30 points or 1.01 per cent to close at 73,730.23.
It is not just the secondary market that is witnessing a revival in fortunes. Even the initial public offering (IPO) market have roared back to life, with investors submitting bids worth over Rs 2.2 trillion on the three IPOs that wrapped up on Friday. Fashion retailer Vishal Mega Mart (VMM)'s IPO (fifth largest of the year) garnered 27.3x subscription, with bids exceeding Rs 1.6 trillion.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The current valuation is 38 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 22x and over 50 per cent higher than the 20-year average of around 20x.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
Over the past year, the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG Index, which tracks the market capitalisation of the top 15 companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, has surged by 17.3 per cent. In contrast, the Nifty50, a broader market index, has witnessed an 8.8 per cent increase during the same period. The FMCG stocks have also been rally leaders in the current calendar year.
Micro-cap stocks are in the line of fire as market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is tightening its noose around investment in small-cap stocks. Given this, analysts suggest investors exit the segment, at least, for the time being. Independent market analyst, Ambareesh Baliga, for instance, said that regulators have gotten worried on the valuation front, though belated, which could prove to be the last straw on the camel's back.
The NSE Nifty 50 has slipped 3.4 per cent, or 764 points, in the last five trading sessions, after registering a fresh all-time high at 22,794.70 on Friday, May 03, 2024. In the process, the Nifty 50 index is seen quoting close to its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) of 21,970 for the second time in less than a month. Earlier on April 19, 2024, the Nifty 50 had tested the 100-DMA support, and then staged a smart rally of 4.7 per cent, or 1,017 points, to hit the new peak of 22,794.70.
'These are capex and infrastructure-linked sectors, PSUs or stocks of some corporate houses.'
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
Technical charts indicate a possibility of a meaningful correction in the upcoming months.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
The combined weight of IT companies in the benchmark Nifty 50 index is now at a five-year high of 15 per cent as these companies continue to outperform the broader market.
The mutual fund industry's assets under management (AUM) have likely breached the Rs 50 trillion mark following a rally in domestic equities this month. The industry's average AUM stood at almost Rs 48 trillion at the end of October. In November, the Nifty50 index has gained about 4 per cent so far, while smallcap and midcap indices have rallied close to 8 per cent.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
The majority of active largecap funds are set to outperform for the second year in a row in 2024, thanks to the strong performance of their midcap and smallcap allocations.
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Analyst are cautious about the performance of IT services sector from January to March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and the first half (H1) of FY25. While the Bloomberg consensus on revenue implies the market is expecting 2-3 per cent growth on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis for the IT majors through FY25, the H1FY25 is likely to see even flatter returns, and Q4FY24 is likely to be poor. There is likely to be some recovery in the second half (H2FY25) but even so, there's a chance that the market will be overall disappointed.
In calendar year 2024, the stock price of Trent has zoomed 160% As compared to the 18% rally in the BSE Sensex during the same period. It has outperformed the market in the past 10 consecutive years.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
According to data from BSE, the 4,357 companies available for trade had a combined mcap of around Rs 416 trillion on Tuesday against India's GDP at current prices of Rs 296.6 trillion in FY24.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Benchmark Sensex closed above the 85,000 level for the first time while Nifty scaled the 26,000 peak at close on Wednesday as fag-end buying in banking and power shares helped stock markets recoup early losses. After a see-saw trade during the day, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 255.83 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at an all-time high of 85,169.87. During the day, it surged 333.38 points or 0.39 per cent to hit a record intra-day peak of 85,247.42.
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